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Local Races Set Stage for Taiwan Presidential Election
TAIPEI, Taiwan—Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang won three out of five mayoral seats Saturday in tightly contested local elections that have been watched closely as a gauge of support for the historic steps taken by the party to warm political and economic relations with China.
The opposition Democratic Progressive Party had polled well in northern Taiwan—historically a KMT stronghold—ahead of the elections, but experts said an assassination attempt on former Vice President Lien Chan's son, Sean Lien, at a pre-election rally mobilized supporters of the ruling party. Turnout was 70% across Taiwan.
Taiwan's ruling party holds onto most of the islands mayoral posts up for grabs in elections seen as a test of the party's popularity ahead of 2012 presidential elections. Video courtesy of Reuters.
"Originally the KMT was struggling to mobilize its base, but the shooting Friday drove some of those disappointed and apathetic voters to the polls out of anger," said Wang Yeh-lih, chairman of the National Taiwan University department of political science.
Although the elections have been marked by debate about local issues such as transportation, governance and income disparity, experts said the KMT's victories—in key urban constituencies representing 60% of Taiwan's populace—signal support for its pro-China economic policies, which have helped Taiwan's economy stage a speedy recovery from the global economic downturn.
But the DPP staged a strong recovery after receiving a drubbing in 2008 legislative and presidential elections amid widespread corruption charges. Saturday's results show it continues to gain momentum as it garnered around 3.8 million total votes, more than the KMT's 3.4 million votes, and mounted a strong challenge to KMT candidates in key support bases in central and northern Taiwan.
"The outcome of the elections is a warning sign for the KMT. In the next year or so, the KMT will have to make efforts to boost economic growth and improve cross-strait relations to enhance people's confidence [of the ruling party]," said Standard Chartered economist Tony Phoo.
"The DPP successfully regained voters' support over the last two years. This will absolutely constitute a challenge for the KMT in the presidential election in 2012."
The election results were largely in keeping with traditional political divides in the island, with KMT candidates winning in the central and northern cities of Taipei, Xinbei City and Taichung while the opposition Democratic Progressive Party's candidates won in the southern cities of Tainan and Kaohsiung. Taipei mayoral incumbent Hau Lung-bin won in Taipei and Eric Chu beat out DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen in Xinbei City.
The results "show the Ma administration will be more confident on its cross-strait policies going forward, but it does not necessarily mean it will take more aggressive approach, as Ma will need to be careful ahead of the presidential election in 2012," said Mr. Wang of National Taiwan University.
In 2004, Taiwan's elections were also marred by an assassination attempt when then incumbent presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian was shot the day before polling. Mr. Chen narrowly won re-election the next day and experts had said the shooting helped him gain more votes.
National Taiwan University hospital reported Mr. Lien remained conscious after the shooting and he is in stable condition after a four-hour surgery. The motive for the shooting remained unclear.
Investors have also closely watched the elections to judge support for closer economic ties and are likely to be cheered by the results. Taiwan's stock market has risen nearly 12% since a landmark trade deal that reduces tariffs and trade barriers, and liberalizes cross-strait investment rules was signed in June. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement has also eased tensions in what has long been one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.
The pact is expected to bring huge long-term gains to Taiwan by opening up opportunities in the world's second-largest economy and bringing more Chinese investment to the island. But the deal is also bringing increased competition to bear on local industries, causing pain in some sectors.
Although Taiwan politics are notoriously mercurial, experts said the tangible effects of ECFA and how well the KMT publicizes those results will be a key issue in the 2012 elections. Losing DPP mayoral candidates Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen have been widely tipped as the most likely candidates to represent the DPP in that election.
China and Taiwan separated in 1949 when the KMT fled to the island after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's Communists. Beijing officially claims sovereignty over Taiwan, although the self-governing island has de facto independence.
The opposition Democratic Progressive Party had polled well in northern Taiwan—historically a KMT stronghold—ahead of the elections, but experts said an assassination attempt on former Vice President Lien Chan's son, Sean Lien, at a pre-election rally mobilized supporters of the ruling party. Turnout was 70% across Taiwan.
Taiwan's ruling party holds onto most of the islands mayoral posts up for grabs in elections seen as a test of the party's popularity ahead of 2012 presidential elections. Video courtesy of Reuters.
"Originally the KMT was struggling to mobilize its base, but the shooting Friday drove some of those disappointed and apathetic voters to the polls out of anger," said Wang Yeh-lih, chairman of the National Taiwan University department of political science.
Although the elections have been marked by debate about local issues such as transportation, governance and income disparity, experts said the KMT's victories—in key urban constituencies representing 60% of Taiwan's populace—signal support for its pro-China economic policies, which have helped Taiwan's economy stage a speedy recovery from the global economic downturn.
But the DPP staged a strong recovery after receiving a drubbing in 2008 legislative and presidential elections amid widespread corruption charges. Saturday's results show it continues to gain momentum as it garnered around 3.8 million total votes, more than the KMT's 3.4 million votes, and mounted a strong challenge to KMT candidates in key support bases in central and northern Taiwan.
"The outcome of the elections is a warning sign for the KMT. In the next year or so, the KMT will have to make efforts to boost economic growth and improve cross-strait relations to enhance people's confidence [of the ruling party]," said Standard Chartered economist Tony Phoo.
"The DPP successfully regained voters' support over the last two years. This will absolutely constitute a challenge for the KMT in the presidential election in 2012."
The election results were largely in keeping with traditional political divides in the island, with KMT candidates winning in the central and northern cities of Taipei, Xinbei City and Taichung while the opposition Democratic Progressive Party's candidates won in the southern cities of Tainan and Kaohsiung. Taipei mayoral incumbent Hau Lung-bin won in Taipei and Eric Chu beat out DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen in Xinbei City.
The results "show the Ma administration will be more confident on its cross-strait policies going forward, but it does not necessarily mean it will take more aggressive approach, as Ma will need to be careful ahead of the presidential election in 2012," said Mr. Wang of National Taiwan University.
In 2004, Taiwan's elections were also marred by an assassination attempt when then incumbent presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian was shot the day before polling. Mr. Chen narrowly won re-election the next day and experts had said the shooting helped him gain more votes.
National Taiwan University hospital reported Mr. Lien remained conscious after the shooting and he is in stable condition after a four-hour surgery. The motive for the shooting remained unclear.
Investors have also closely watched the elections to judge support for closer economic ties and are likely to be cheered by the results. Taiwan's stock market has risen nearly 12% since a landmark trade deal that reduces tariffs and trade barriers, and liberalizes cross-strait investment rules was signed in June. The Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement has also eased tensions in what has long been one of the world's most dangerous flashpoints.
The pact is expected to bring huge long-term gains to Taiwan by opening up opportunities in the world's second-largest economy and bringing more Chinese investment to the island. But the deal is also bringing increased competition to bear on local industries, causing pain in some sectors.
Although Taiwan politics are notoriously mercurial, experts said the tangible effects of ECFA and how well the KMT publicizes those results will be a key issue in the 2012 elections. Losing DPP mayoral candidates Su Tseng-chang and Tsai Ing-wen have been widely tipped as the most likely candidates to represent the DPP in that election.
China and Taiwan separated in 1949 when the KMT fled to the island after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's Communists. Beijing officially claims sovereignty over Taiwan, although the self-governing island has de facto independence.
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